Selected fixed table
For each ticket price, the modeled fixed outcomes are 1.5× at 18%, 3× at 8%, 10× at 2%, and 100× at 0.1%. Their expected contribution is 0.81× ticket price. The fixed-outcome probability totals 28.1%; the published 28% any-win figure is rounded before the separate jackpot chance.
Jackpot equation
The modeled jackpot pays 12% of the live pot. Hit probability scales with ticket price: price × 1/2,000, producing 1 in 2,000 for $1, 1 in 400 for $5, and 1 in 100 for $20. Jackpot expected value per $1 is live pot × 0.12 ÷ 2,000.
Monte Carlo scenario
Run date: 13 August 2026. The comparison used 2,000 deterministic-seed runs of 30 days, 100 tickets per day, a $500 seed pot, ticket-count mix 70% / 25% / 5% across $1 / $5 / $20, all ticket spend entering the pot, and fixed prizes capped at 25% of the then-current pot. The cited 0.9% probability of dropping below $250 used zero fee inflow.
Limits
Ticket demand, tier mix, creator-fee inflow, contract behavior, transaction costs, block conditions, and player outcomes can differ. The simulation does not prove solvency, fairness, or future return. Source and executable verifier publication remain launch gates.